Bangalore : If one went by recent electoral history, Karnataka has not voted in an incumbent. Other than this political history, what does go in favour of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the May 12 Karnataka assembly elections is the eleventh hour aggressive push to its campaign by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who has overshot his earlier schedule and investing more days in the state.

Besides recent electoral history of Karantaka, even the results of elections in general in the country over the past few years have ended up with voters ejecting the ruling dispensation, whether it was Akali Dal-BJP combine in Punjab or the Congress in Himachal Pradesh and the like. Anti-incumbency sentiments are proving difficult to beat as Samajwadi Party discovered to its discomfiture. In North East too the Congress and Left got ejected from the few states they had held mostly on account of anti-incumbency.

Going by this reasoning, it is looking like a Congress exit from Karnataka. On the face of it, BJP president Amit Shah’s boast of 150 sure appears like a boast, but the ground reality is more like the BJP ending up as the largest single party and with a realistic chance of forming the government with some help from Janata Dal (Secular) of HD Deve Gowda.

But, the BJP confidence seems to ooze from Modi’s direct attack against Deve Gowda the other day while campaigning, indicating that the BJP assessment has made the party bolder now than ever before.

One reason for the BJP’s loss in 2013 elections was that former chief minister BS Yeddyurappa had split away from the party and “defeated” the BJP. He too ended up as a big loser, but now the BJP has become a single unit. Added to this is the firepower from the aggressive campaigner in Modi. If not anything, he has the power to swing the polls in at least 50 constituencies said a Karnataka BJP leader. And this will be the difference between the BJP and its nearest rival, the Congress, the BJP leader asserted.

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A senior BJP leader from Delhi, now touring Karnataka, sounded extremely confident of his party forming the next government. For the present, the BJP leaders dismiss the Congress and its chief minister S Siddaramaiah as “divisive” politician running a corrupt government.

Another reason the BJP looks more confident is perhaps because it is loaded with money. Many Congress candidates are seemingly feeling the pinch as also help from business and industry was less than forthcoming, according to a Congress leader.

Bangalore, of late, has been a bad advertisement for the Siddaramaiah’s governance given the plethora of problems the city is plagued with. In urban centre of Bangalore, the BJP has chances to win majority of the 28 seats.

It is in the rural Karnataka that the Congress stands a fighting chance to make a difference and stave off the BJP challenge. The reasons for this are not far to seek.

Welfare schemes of Siddaramaiah, like subsidized food, rice at Rs 1 per kilo, partial farm loan waiver and cheap canteens on the lines of Amma canteens in Tamil Nadu where one can get a meal for Rs 5 are some of the schemes that promise to stand in good stead for the Congress. And then, the chief minister’s political googly in promising separate religious minority status to the dominant Lingayat community has the chance of weaning away the powerful Lingayat community away from BJP and Yeeyurappa.

But, the anti-incumbency is something that the Congress seems to be fighting against. But on the positive side for the Congress, the BJP’s strong yearning to stick with scam-tainted leader like Yeddyurappa punctures the Corruption plank that Modi chose to highlight as a strong and aggressive campaign point against the Congress.

But on reflection, can the Congress and its politically astute chief minister Siddaramaiah retain power, going against the recent electoral history is the question that will be answered by the voters on May 12. Counting will be taken up on May 15.

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