Chennai: Since the day the then Chief Minister O Panneerselvam revolted against AIADMK General Secretary and Chief Minister aspirant VK Sasikala, the political theatre in Tamil Nadu heated up, turning the ruling AIADMK into a house divided.

It is more like a 20-20 match now and the result known only in the last over, when the MLAs are present in the house vote and they are counted. As the situation was very fluid, even though Edappaddi Palaniswami showed a list of 124 MLAs to the governor and was sworn in, but analysts are wary of predicting its longevity, given the horizontal and vertical split the AIADMK is going through.

Both the sides expelled one another – if Sasikala had expelled 19 OPS camp members from the primary membership of the AIADMK on Friday the sacked AIADMK presidium chairman E Madhusudanan retaliated and expelled Sasikala and her nephews TVV Dinakaran and S Venkatesh as the OPS camp stepped up pressure.

The cadres are firmly behind Panneerselvam, who be described as the people’s CM, and it is only the MLAs who are with Palaniswami, “who are detained and held in captivity” as alleged by Pannerselvam camp.

But early Friday morning came a jolt to the Chief Minister Palaniswami camp with a shocker coming from former DGP and AIADMK MLA R Nataraj, who said he will vote for OPS as dictated by his conscience as also due to the pressure of his constituents. The extent to which this has bothered the Palaniswami camp can be gauged from his cancellation of trip to call on Sasikala in the Bengaluru jail, to pay his obeisance and pledge his loyalty to her once again after swearing in.

But amid reports that a few AIADMK MLAs were also restless inside the Golden Bay resort where they have been holed up, Palaniswami rushed there to pacify those annoyed with the composition of the council of ministers.

Reports are that if all the MLAs in the house, totaling 234 are present and voting, the Palaniswami government needs 118 MLAs to vote for it to survive.

Till yesterday, there was no doubt that Sasikala had won the game and got her proxy installed as the chief minister and he would pass muster easily as OPS had the support of just 10 MLAs. But with Nataraj’s entry the tally went to 11. But more important, there are rumblings being heard from within the Golden Bay resort and few MLAs were ready to defy the Palaniswami camp.
Just a handful of MLAs are enough to dislodge the government, and the OPS camp is sure of at least 7 more who will switch sides at the right moment.

But a dampener of sorts came from the DMK camp with suggestions that it was considering walking out of the house as a mark of protest against the Palaniswami government’s installation.
If indeed it happens, then Palaniswami would be through and for OPS it will be revenge that never was.

By the time you read this, a result would have been out. Whether it is Palaniswami or further political instability, one thing is clear. The winner is the DMK which will face a divided and weaker AIADMK. The first real test is the local body elections that could be held soon. If popular sentiment is an indicator, for sure, the AIADMK of Sasikala camp will be facing a tough time to prove its popularity and legitimacy.