October 29, 2024
World War I – The War of Trenches, was fought between 1914 and 1918 in the trenches of France, Belgium, and Western Europe. The war was between men fighting each other at close quarters. The fight was also against rain, sleet, slush, snow, and diseases. The civilian population was largely unharmed directly. The fighting was restricted mostly to the European continent. Casualties were high. The strategy was limited to moving large masses of men and holding ground. Progress was measured in feet. As the war entered the final stages newer weapons like machine guns, poison gas, tanks, and aircraft came to be used with devastating effects.
World War II – the Mechanical War was fought between 1939 and 1945. The area over which the war was fought was wider and covered land, sea, and air. The war saw the use of motorized vehicles to multiply the effectiveness of the infantry. Tanks and large artillery guns were used effectively to run over positions rendering fixed defensive posts vulnerable. Gunboats and submarines prowled the seas to intercept troop movements and disrupt sea-based supply lines. Airplanes were used to ferry men and materials over long distances and overfly well-defended positions. Airplanes were also used to destroy military and civilian infrastructure by bombing them. Civilian casualties and collateral damage were factored to force surrender. The war saw the first use of atomic weapons. Boots on the ground were required to secure, consolidate, and create launchpads for further forward movement. Improved communications and mechanization of operations increased the efficiency of armies severalfold.
World War III – the Joystick War which is being waged now was triggered by the 2001-2003 invasion of Iraq and Afghanistan by America and the creation of the ISIS caliphate. The proximate reason for the war remains the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, the belligerence exhibited by China in the South China Sea in enforcing its claims, in the Himalayas by the flexing of muscles by the two Asian giants to the Middle East by the attacks on Israel by Iran and its proxies the Hamas, the Houthis and the Hezbollah and retaliation by Israel. One must also not forget the bio-weapon developed by the US-Chinese government and unleashed deliberately or accidentally in 2019 which caused the Corona pandemic. The battlefields now extend beyond the physical landscape of land, air and sea to outer space and the minds of humans.
The protagonists ranged against each other fall into two blocks. The American-led Western Alliance and the Russian/ Chinese-led Eastern Alliance. The war being waged is for control of natural resources and economic dominance. Countries like India, Brazil, and the South East Asian countries have adopted an ambivalent attitude fundamentally to protect their interests to protect their interests and promote a multipolar world where no country will dominate. The United Nations has been reduced to a toothless and emasculated body incapable of any action.
The current war is being fought on different planes, mostly covertly and through proxies. An analysis of the war being waged throws up the following battles being fought.
a. Information warfare: Involving propaganda, misinformation/disinformation, fake news, and influence pedalling over social media and news outlets.
b. Economic Warfare: Sanctions, Tariffs, Economic blockades, disruption of trade transactions, seeking displacement of the US Dollar as a reserve currency, introducing volatility in Stock markets through non-state actors to debilitate the economy
c. Guerrilla Warfare: Creating, training, arming, funding, and sustaining insurgent groups and proxies to and targeting civilian and military installations in hit-and-run operations to introduce fear among the people and keep the governments off balance.
d. Psychological warfare: Campaigns designed to influence events, lower morale, and undermine trust in institutions and governments.
e. Cyber warfare: Hacking, digital espionage, disabling critical infrastructure through DDOS attacks, remotely monitored and directed drone attacks, device attacks etc.,
f. Conventional War: Direct involvement of men and equipment in occupying territory.
Each of these dimensions employs technology, remote engagement, and indirect confrontation, reducing reliance on human interface and geographical limitations. Essentially war is being reduced to a battle fought virtually with a joystick. Without any direct impact on human sensibility such wars carry with them the inherent danger of continuing without any constraint of human suffering and remorse. With Artificial Intelligence occupying a great deal of research space, this war could at some point in time be taken over completely by machines and spiral out of human control and therein will lie the danger to human society.
As warfare becomes more automated and disconnected from human impact, there lies a real risk of conflicts escalating unchecked, potentially beyond human control. This presents an urgent need for global agreements on the ethical use of AI and technology in warfare, aiming to preserve human accountability and prevent unintended consequences.