By distancing from both DMK and AIADMK, casteist outfits like VCK and PMK run the risk of losing out

If Tamil Nadu polls throw up a fractured verdict, the main culprit would be the northern belt where casteist parties rule the roost. In the Vanniyar belt, essential the Vanniyars and dalits decide the fate of political parties, and this time around the area presents mixed trends and ground situation makes calling the elections a very risky job.

In Tamil Nadu’s other parts, southern and western, trends are discernible but it is here in this belt comprising Villupuram, Vellore, Tiruvanamalai, Dharmapuri, Salem and Krishnagiri districts that comprise some 50 seats, the political situation gets complicated due to the caste factor at play.

In southern parts, as of now, the AIADMK appears to have an edge, in the Vanniyar belt and dalit dominated areas provide a confusing picture.

The Vanniyars and Dalits, together account for 40 per cent of the population and most often they vote on caste lines. Of course, with the caste card being played by all the political parties in fray, the caste factor somewhat gets diluted but still it is an important aspect.

Till 2001, the Vanniyar-based Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) and Vidhuthalai Chiruthagal Katchi (VCK), pro Dalit party, were the key determining factors in the region. And till then, these two parties were either aligned with the DMK or AIADMK. But with both of them contesting against the two Dravidian parties, the situation has become somewhat hazy.

It was quite evident that the AIADMK swept the Vanniyar belt in alliance with the PMK in 1998 and then the casteist party teamed up with the DMK for a similar result in 1999.

However, observers feel that this time, by staying away from the DMK and AIADMK, the PMK and VCK were unlikely to win many seats.

Though they can at best give a tough fight and play spoilers, in many constituencies they would end up as runners up.

“Expect for PMK chief minister candidate Anbumani Ramados and VCK chief Thol Thirumavalavan, none of the other candidate seems to even have a chance. Both the parties did a big mistake of not aligning with either DMK or AIADMK”, S Venkatesan, a political analyst said.

Tamil Nadu Vanniyar Sangam member K Shankar said “we expect only few seats this time. The AIADMK and DMK have nominated Vanniyar caste candidates in western region that made PMK very difficult to make inroads. The votes will be scattered, which is a huge disadvantage for PMK”.

On the other hand, VCK senior party functionary Murugesan felt that his party “wrongly” allied with Vijayakanth’s DMDK-People Welfare Front (PWF), which is unlikely to perform well.

In addition, all the opinion polls, conducted by several groups in Tamil Nadu gives the edge either to AIADMK or DMK. All the survey also revealed that DMDK-PWF combine will get only between 10 to 15 seats out of the total 234. The findings further said that the PMK is expected to win only three or four seats.

But this is a favorable estimate that could wrong, with both the PMK and VCK ending up with either one seat or less.

“How long we are going to ally with PMK and VCK to bank on caste votes. We have fielded candidates from the same caste,” said K Murugesan, a senior DMK functionary.

“The AIADMK candidate in Dharmapuri belongs to my Vanniyar caste and therefore I will give a chance to him this time”, Kamakshi, a flower vendor in Dharmapuri said.

Interestingly, the first time voters in the caste-dominated Western belt said that they are not looking the caste of the candidates and wants the contestants to fulfill their promises especially in the education sector.

But as long a majority of the people swear and vote by caste, it will be a factor that will determine the poll outcomes, one way or the other, depending on caste mobilization – by casteist parties or Dravidian majors.