In Tamil Nadu, it is Amma again everywhere, like the plethora of Amma schemes chief minister J Jayalalithaa has unleashed ever since she stormed to power in May 2011. For the first time in over three decades, AIADMK supremo could be the first chief minister to win assembly elections in a state where voters have have alternated to vote in one of the two Dravidian parties – AIADMK and DMK. And as such it was the turn of the DMK this time around.

But sadly for the DMK, plagued with its own family politics and crippling rivalry and its own failure to stitch up an alliance that would work on the ground, the DMK may not be able to dislodge Amma, Jayalalithaa is fondly referred to by her supporters and party cadres.

Barring criticism of her recent handling of floods and dismal power situation, Jayalalithaa has no negatives during this tenure of hers, that was noted more for her absence from the chief minister’s post due to her conviction in disproportionate assets case for over an year. Since the conviction was reversed by the Karnataka High Court, now challenged in the Supreme Court, she has been in full blown election mode for the past two years, giving one freebee or subsidy a day, touching every aspect of life and every section of the society. She has built a brand Amma that is difficult to match and in rural areas, holds sway completely with her Amma schemes – that range from subsidized cooked food to cement to drugs to vegetables to fruits to bottled mineral water to cinemas to almost-everything-one-can-think-of.

On the positive front, she has Brand Amma and good governance cards, though this is highly contested by DMK and opposition that alleges she has been a chief minister in absentia. But more important and politically significant is that she will be enjoying the benefit of the anti-incumbency and anti-AIADMK vote splitting in at least four different directions and retaining power, albeit with a reduced margin. Rough conservative estimates, one month ahead of polling on May 16, have put her numbers at 130 out of a house of 234, getting simple majority on her own.

Jayalalithaa has to thank Vijayakanth.

She has Captain Vijayakanth to thank, for her ‘winnable’ situation. If Vijayakanth, with his 8 per cent vote share gone to the DMK, it would have become a tougher combination to beat. DMK itself is slated to get a vote share of 32 per cent and the AIADMK projected to get 39 per cent vote share even as the parties in Tamil Nadu are yet to finalise all their alliances, name candidates and release manifestoes. Campaign is yet to pick up full momentum.

Although things can still change, as there appear breaks in the new third force – Peoples Welfare Front and Captain Vijayakanth– filmstar turned politician – with some leaders in the front trying to rope in more players.

Meanwhile, a stung DMK is out to inflict damage on DMDK and is trying to wean away its second rung leaders. Already few district level secretaries have deserted the DMDK as they were annoyed with Vijayakanth for not joining DMK. For the DMK and its patriarch M Karunanidhi, now pushing 92, this could very well be the last election he is fighting. And he desperately wants to be on the winning side. Which is why, he has been far more accommodating than the other DMK leaders, notably his son MK Stalin. On the negative side for the DMK, its alliance with the Congress is just about tied with both sides fiercely fighting for greater share in number of seats.

As Tamil Nadu picks up electioneering, the top takeaway is Jayalalithaa is poised to return as the chief minister with a reduced margin and the DMK doubling its presence to become the recognized opposition party again. The smaller regional players in the state are only positioning themselves for the 2021 polls when the two Dravidian parties, they hope, would be having a possible leadership vacuum.

Which explains the Vijayakanth decision to go with a smaller, weaker political formation and asserting his leadership there to position himself as a viable CM candidate in the next general elections, explained a political analyst.