Amma creates history, becomes the first CM in three decades to get re-elected

Freebies, welfare schemes and promises galore and Brand Amma powered Jayalalithaa’s campaign in which the opposition conspired to make her win. DMK scored self goal by its mistake – of tying up with Congress that pulled it down.

AIADMK supremo J Jayalalalithaa on Thursday stormed back to power, thriving on a divided opposition that put paid to the dreams of the 92-year-old arch rival M Karunanidhi to become the chief minister for the sixth time.

Jayalalithaa became the first chief minister in 30 years to get relected and scripted history in the process. Not after her political mentor MG Ramachandran won three elections in a row, no chief minister in Tamil Nadu could buck anti-incumbency trends, till Jayalalithaa broke the jinx.

Though her welfare schemes, freebies and Brand Amma are cited as the reasons for her victory, the factor that played the larger role is the division of anti-incumbency votes in different directions, something that Karunanidhi anticipated but could not prevent.

The wily old politicians tried his best to rope in Vijayakanth. But, he had another enemy that he had forgotten about – Vaiko whom he had ousted from the party lest he come in the way of his favorite and favored son, MK Stalin.

Now this time Vaiko had his revenge – he ensured that a front was created that stood away from either of the two Dravidian formations and this ensured that anti-AIADMK votes could not consolidate behind the DMK – which used to be the main reason for its winning previously, just like it was when AIADMK wrested power from DMK.

It goes to the credit of Jayalalithaa that she went alone, without any allies, forcing them to either go to the DMK, which some could not for political reasons. And then, she was helped by the chief ministerial ambitions of two other players – Captain Vijayakanth of DMDK who was allied with Amma in the previous elections in 2011 and Anbumani Ramadoss of Pattali Makkal Katchi, who broke away from the BJP fold and went into elections in two different formations. The DMDK went with Vaiko and Left, and thereby ensuring that this formation would take away some votes.

And this is what exactly happened.

All the Amma’s men

The third front as it was called, did not win even a single seat, but It ensured the defeat of some other candidates, mostly the DMK, as it now turns out. In multi-cornered contests, even the presence of the BJP helped Amma, as the BJP too was engaged in competitive bashing of Jayalalithaa to garner as much anti-incumbency votes as possible – which otherwise would have gone to the DMK.

Some political analysts also see a fixed match, in the presence of the BJP and its anti-AIADMK campaign in which for good measure the BJP leaders also brushed the DMK with the same brush of corruption.

But, positive campaign of Jayalalithaa on development and her freebies and welfare schemes doled out by her government that got her unflinching support of the rural poor, and her own powerful personal all combined to power Jayalalithaa to a stupendous victory.

Among the first to call Jayalalithaa after the poll outcome became increasingly obvious was Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who congratulated her on the record win.

Jaya thanks voters

In a televised message to the voters, Jayalalithaa thanked them for giving her a stupendous victory. “It is indeed a historic victory as after 1984 no ruling party in the state has been able to win the elections and form the government. My party and I are indebted to the people of Tamil Nadu for giving us this historic victory. I am overwhelmed by the resounding victory by the people of Tamil Nadu,” she said.

“I have no interest in life other than to work for the people of Tamil Nadu. I thank the people for continuing to repose their trust in me and I find there are not enough words in the English dictionary to express my gratitude to the people of Tamil Nadu. I would show my gratitude to the people through my actions after forming the government and fulfil all promises made in election manifesto,” Jayalalithaa said.

“Even though all parties were against me, I believed in God and had associated myself with people. During my campaign I had said, I am for the people and people are for me. I will continue to follow this and what all promises I have made in our election manifesto, I will try to implement them.

At this moment, I thank the tireless toil of all our workers of the party who made this victory possible and also I thank all our alliance partners,” Jayalalithaa said.

Jayalalithaa had to curtail her campaign due to ill health. But she still managed to reach her message to the masses.

DMK scores self goal?

But most important, she was helped by the DMK’s own mistakes. By teaming up with Congress, it hurt its own chances. DMK treasurer MK Stalin is said to have been against an alliance with Congress, but had to go along with his father who still wields absolute power in the party.

Political analysts believe that the DMK may have gained and put up a bigger fight had it projected Stalin as the chief ministerial candidate.

This defeat surely affect the DMK in ways more than one.

Five years without power again is a prospect that is bound to dampen party spirits. This is a prospect that is not a rosy one when its leaders like Kanimozhi and former telcom ministers are facing 2G scam cases. In Tamil Nadu suddenly the Raja aide muder case is springing up, with an accused admitting that he had killed Raja’s aide as he was ready to spill the beans to the CBI.

The defeat may even embolden Karunanidhi’s elder son MK Alagiri, since been ousted from the party to make bolder attacks against his brother Stalin.

For the DMK family, including the Maran brothers, the prospect of another stint of powerless existence in Tamil Nadu is something that would be worrying.

But even in this defeat, Stalin has shown that he can lead the party and change its fortunes. From a mere 23 seats he brought the party four times the seats, a big achievement. The main reason he could not get the final push was that he was declared the chief ministerial candidate. That would have given the needed edge to take on Jayalalithaa.

For the present it is an opportunity missed for the DMK and it has to wait for another five years.

But in the meanwhile, the DMK may witness a clash between the old guard and the Stalin supporters.