Puducherry

Congress could win consolation prize

Getting routed and ousted from most regions where the Congress is fighting electoral battles, it is only in this tiny state of Puducherry with its 30 assembly seats that the grand old national party is set to wrest back its bastion from a breakaway Congress leader N Rangasamy.

For sure, Congress has a window of opportunity in this former French colony. Although not an easy task, a united Congress can mount a big challenge to breakaway Congress leader and chief minister N Rangasamy, who is battling anti-incumbency and a plethora of corruption charges. But the situation is still fluid as the Congress has to battle itself with rebels and disgruntled leaders, itching to spoil the show for the party and its senior leaders.

Congress has improved its chances in Puducherry as it is seen as a functioning opposition party, unlike elsewhere in the country. “Poll promises not fulfilled” is the common refrain from people, who seem to be looking for more freebies when talking about chief minister Rangasamy.

The Congress campaign theme — under development, poor infrastructure, closure of industries on the economic front and prevailing goonda raj – seems to be bearing fruit as people are just waiting for May 16 to throw out the government, said former MOS in PMO and senior Congress leader V Narayansamy.

Kerala: Left Front to edge out Congress

Assembly elections in two other crucial states of Kerala and Tamil Nadu is bad news for the Congress as its slide continues. While in Tamil Nadu, it has been relegated to being a minor player for the past two decades, in Kerala is stands perilously close to losing power to the Left Democratic Front – in the alternate power sharing system between the Left and the Congress that has evolved in Kerala over the years.

While the bad news for the Congress is it will lost one more state under its control, for the BJP is moderately good news as it is poised to increase its vote share in the state, thanks to the tireless work of the RSS cadres and may even open its account in the Kerala assembly. It has also notched up few friendly alliances in Kerala that will help the BJP open its account.

The BJP struck a partnership with BJDS (popularly known as an organization Sree Narayana Dharma Paripalana (SNDP) Yogam) propagating the moral teachings and dharma of Shree Narayana Guru. Union health minister JP Nadda said in Kerala “all nationalist forces” would come together to defeat the Congress-led dispensation as also the Left. “The alliance with BJDS is for development and change of politics in Kerala”, said the BJP leader.

Pre-election surveys have only reiterated the Kerala peoples’ preference to throw out the incumbent and point to the ouster of chief minister Oomen Chandy. The issues, for the Congress as boringly the same – infighting within the party and the general corruption continue to plague the party as it tries its best to retain power in the highly educated and politically conscious state.

West Bengal: Mamata holds on despite Left resurgence

In West Bengal, it is still Mamata Banerjee’s populist, pro-people freebies – most importantly, the free rice scheme – that have endeared her to the masses and makes her the unquestionable leader as of now. True, there is anti-incumbency – with people extremely upset against her government and her ministers, but personally Mamata Banerjee is still considered as the savior and the well-meaning leader with the interests of people in her mind.

Pre-election surveys have pointed out that despite the corruption scandals – Sharada chit fund scam. Narada sting operation where TMC leaders were caught on camera accepting bribes a—Mamata Banerjee and TMC are the frontrunners to retain power, although with reduced number of seats. But only marginally.

What the situation on the ground in West Bengal is showing is the resurgence of the Left Front, but only just and not enough to pose a big enough to challenge to Mamata and dislodge her from the state. At least for this time, though. But what could be worrisome for the Congress is that even in West Bengal, its relevance and importance is under wane, with Left Front gaining more from its electoral tie up with the Congress.

Left Front Congress combine started late in electioneering as they had to thrash out seat adjustments, but even then ground level skirmishes between the workers could adversely affect the tie up.

The BJP too sharpened its offensive with Modi-Shah combine tearing into the failures of the TMC government and its deep rooted involvement in corruption.

Despite a fall in her popularity, anti-incumbency and corruption scandals, Mamata has these factors going for her. Impact of social welfare schemes: There can be no question that especially in South Bengal rural areas, all districts south of Murshidabad— the TMC Government has implemented social welfare and other schemes that have improved the lives of local people.

Even her worst critics will agree that much of the credit for this goes to Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee. But she has to be wary of mobilization against her.

BJP back to winning ways: poised to wrest Assam from Congress

The year 2016 brings good tidings for the Modi-Shah combine as it goes about its clinical campaign to rid the nation of Congress – Congress mukht Bharat – and gets into a position to wrest power from Congress in Assam and improve its electoral performance in crucial states of West Bengal and even Kerala in South.

For the first time in electoral history of the country, the BJP is leading an alliance in Assam (with Asom Gana Parishad as the senior partner) and going into electoral battle with a clear cut chief ministerial candidate in a local leader who emerged from the student movement – Sarbanand Sonowal, a popular local boy who made it good in national politics.

The BJP, which drew positive lessons from the Bihar drubbing despite heavy investment by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in terms of his engagement with masses there through election campaigns this time around has changed its strategy and is going with a definite chief ministerial candidate to take on Congress veteran and three-time chief minister Tarun Gogoi, who is fighting a lone battle to save himself and the Congress. Barring few election rallies by AICC president Sonia Gandhi and vice president Rahul Gandhi, there are not that many Congress leaders visiting Assam.

But despite fighting with his back against the wall, Gogoi is hanging on with pre-election surveys still giving him a close second position to the BJP-AGP combine under the NDA front, with new players like AIUDF and BDF (Bodoland Peoples Front) adding spice to the almost straight contest between the Congress and the BJP and make the contest keener than surveys would indicate.

The BJP had swept the 2014 general elections in Assam winning seven out of the 10 Lok Sabha seats that translate into 69 assembly segments and ideally should have retained the political advantage it gained in the assembly polls too – as it entered into a crucial poll alliance with Asom Gana Parishad and netted a big, influential Congress leader Himant Biswas Sarma into its fold.

Besides, sniffing a chance following the Lok Sabha showing, the BJP has moved in for the kill ever since Modi became the prime minister, whose Look East and Act East policy began to be aggressively implemented in the North East – that tries to accelerate development activities and bridging the gap between that region and the rest of the country. This stress on development and economic progress appeals to the younger voters, who form a key constituency that had preferred Modi to the Congress of Sonia and Rahul Gandhi in the general elections to Lok Sabha.

Cut to present, AGP has teamed up with the BJP and pre-election surveys have predicted from a clear victory to a largest single party status to the BJP headed NDA. Another key constituent of the NDA led alliance is the Bodoland Peoples Front which has switched sides from the Congress. BPF chief, Hagrama Mahilary, has been batting for the NDA ever since the Modi government outlined its commitment to development Bodo areas and promised to give Rs 1000 crore rupees for the development of Bodoland Territorial Council.