Strong constituency level anti-incumbency, lack of governance and rising unemployment may help the DMK pip the AIADMK despite its Brand Amma and welfare schemes and Freebies

Mind you, these are opinion polls taken by talking to people after they come out of polling booths. But since the voters may not be telling the truth and can mislead the interviewer, there can surely be errors that creep into the final analysis and exit polls too going wrong is not uncommon.

This is a caveat that we at Covai Post would like to issue even before we begin our analysis of the meaning of the exit polls, a majority of which have predicted the comeback of the DMK, on the strength of anti-incumbency that unfortunately for Jayalalithaa could not get split in different directions as was being anticipated earlier by political analysts.

But, that can even still now happen and Jayalalithaa could be the person having the last laugh, if all the exit polls go wrong, as indeed sometimes in the past they have been. The most recent example being Bihar, where early trends of counting, not just exit polls mind you,. Indicated a BJP sweep to the extent that a very reputed television channel began interviewing top leaders of BJP on the victory and carried out a one hour analysis of why the BJP won.

Early days, it proved later on, after trends reversed and the Nitish Kumar – Laloo Yadav combine pulled away and raced to a stupendous victory nearly decimating the BJP, throwing all the predictions of the exit polls, and early trend analysis in the dust bin.

Which is why, one should take the exit polls carried out by different agencies with a pinch of salt. If not anything, the exit polls sure present us with an indication of the direction and the shape of things to come.

Having said this, let us take the exit polls that predict a DMK government, but after a tough battle with the AIADMK. One exit polls gave absolutely majority to Amma, saying that it would he a historic win, a second consecutive term for a sitting chief minister which no one could manage since MGR did in the eighties.

If we take the poll of polls, an average of all the polls, things sure look rosy for the DMK as it appears poised to dislodge the AIADMK from power, sticking to the electoral history that has seen Tamil Nadu electing one of the Dravidian parties alternatively.

But this is not the only reason.

Anti-incumbency at constituency level was so high that at many places ministers and ruling party MLAs were unwelcome in villages and small towns across Tamil Nadu. Why the DMK gained, despite the peoples dislike for both the AIADMK and DMK, is the fact that people wanted to vote for a change and hence voted for a combination that seemed could win. And in this, the DMK-Congress combine stood heads and shoulders above the challengers – PWF-DMDK-TMC combine, Pattali Makkal Katchi and the BJP led NDA formation.

What put paid to AIADMK ambitions of repeat victory is the total collapse of the Vijayakanth front and the consolidation of anti-incumbency votes behind the DMK, as had successfully managed to channelize these sentiments into its favor, both during the poll campaign as also in the six month long Nammakku Naame mass contact programme undertaken by DMK treasurer MK Stalin.

Stalin himself expressed the confidence that DMK would win in all constituencies but RK Nagar from where Jayalalithaa is contesting.

The DMK also successfully mounted a campaign against Jayalalithaa’s regal style of functioning that called for total servility of its members and ministers, which was on public display. This kind of became the staple diet of the assortment of mimicry artists of the DMK who used wit, sarcasm and humour to telling effect in reaching the message to the masses.

Also, Jayalalithaa was handicapped because she was the lone campaigner for her party and her campaign too was hampered by her apparent ill health that did not permit her to take strenuous campaign travels. Which is why she flew in and out of campaign venues and clubbed some 20 constituencies into one public meeting, so that she could cover all constituencies. She could travel across Chennai only and that too during the last two days of her campaigning, that came to an end two days before campaigning closed officially.

Ranged against her were star campaigners of the DMK, M Karunanidhi, his son Stalin and daughter Kanimozhi, who travelled length and breadth of the state. And by road and rail, giving an impression that they were reaching out to the common people in stark contrast to a “flying chief minister” as the DMK resident standup comedians dubbed her.

Poor handling of floods and increase in unemployment due to shut down of many factories, small and medium industries too were the reasons why the youth and first time voters may have chosen to eject Jayalalithaa and vote for change. The “absence of government and poor governance” too were issues that helped shape the decision. The youth seemed to have preferred to go with DMK, if the exit polls results are to be believed.

But then do not forget that there is another pollster, C-Voter, which has given thumping majority to Jayalalithaa.

Political analysts would however not risk sticking their neck out and prefer to describe the Tamil Nadu elections too close to call as against the other states where prediction is easier. For example in West Bengal it is clear that Mamata Banerjee has bucked the anti-incumbency and holding on, in Assam BJP is all set to eject Congress and in Kerala the Left front is to recapture power as per the alternating rule of Kerala politics.

It is only in Puducherry that Congress can claim a victory, a consolation of sorts, with the party poised to win majority, along with its alliance partner the DMK.

In Tamil Nadu, the Congress can claim victory and bask in reflected glory and hope against hope that the DMK includes it in the government. Or at least help reach its nominees reach the Rajya Sabha when polls to the upper house are held in three months’ time.