In Tamil Nadu, power or lack of it cost DMK patriarch M Karunanidhi his government in 2011, when inordinately long power cuts across the state put the last nail in the coffin of his government – along with 2G corruption taint and anti-incumbency.

AIADMK supremo J Jayalaltithaa, who stormed to power with massive majority, reducing the DMK to a rubble of a mere 23 seats, just about 10 per cent of the strength of the house and ousted from even the recognized opposition party status, knows it only too well, that Power holds the key to her retaining power, something that no Dravidian leader since MGR did in over four decades.

If she wins, she would be bucking the recent electoral history and win the confidence of the people in successive elections. The day she won the elections that time around in May 2011, she realized that if she repaired the power situation in the state, she would romp home with ease. As polls are held in searing summer, any power cuts would only add to peoples miseries and she does not want cussed people going out to vote.

So, naturally, power situation or the lack of it, will be playing out with a direct bearing on the outcome of the May 2016 polls too. Power cuts in the run up to the polls will cost Amma dear and spell her doom. Which is why, she began focusing on power situation and augmenting capacity of power production in the state ever since she
assumed office five years ago.

The travails of Tamil Nadu and its economy have origins in poor power availability and infrastructure that has played havoc with the small scale and medium units, many shutting shop. Manufacturing sector was badly hit and more important, many investment decisions went in the other direction, some to neighboring Andhra Pradesh. Chief minister Jayalalithaa has banished power cuts in the run up to elections. Her government has also ordered Tamil Nadu electricity board employees to work till midnight and attend to any power outages swiftly.

Chief minister’s main talking point at all her election rallies is the satisfactory power situation today, which she insists is in stark contrast to the dark days of DMK government when power cuts were the order of the day. Even during the early years of her reign, people suffered inordinately long power cuts, load shedding and outages, but she got around to addressing the situation.

“Today there are no power cuts in Tamil Nadu,” Jayalalithaa declares at every election meeting. However, this is challenged by opponents like Karunanidhi and DMDK chief, Captain Vijayakanth.

“If she manages to improve power situation, she would have had a big achievement to show. And it can really help her at the elections,” said Prof Ramu Manivannan of the Madras University.

Advance planning and purchase of power from all available sources outside the state have meant that power is available with the Tamil Nadu Generation and Distribution Company (Tangedco). Even when demand peaked at 14,500 MW, the power company was able to streamline supply without power cuts.

The state today has a power generating capacity of over 11000 MW and has purchased some 3300 MW of power from outside. Besides, there is non conventional energy sources adding to the state’s power generating capacity, which has enabled the TN government to improve the situation.

True, the big industry and small and medium industries still have an issue on the power front, but there is no doubt that the situation has improved somewhat.

Whether it would be enough to power her to victory, would depend on a host of other factors, like overall index of opposition unity, which is very fragile at the moment. This, resulting in splitting of anti_AIADMK vote can be a great help to Jayalalithaa.

But at the same time, the DMK campaign is picking up momentum. Much would then depend on the campaign from now onwards and the power situation holding for Jayalalithaa to put up another winning show.