RK Nagar, an AIADMK bastion since 2001, goes to poll on April 12. This time around there will be a split in AIADMK vote that can give the DMK a realistic chance to wrest the seat, represented by Amma in the Tamil Nadu assembly.

Chennai: It is Amma’s family versus Sasikala family in RK Nagar assembly constituency that goes to poll on April 12 in a byepoll necessitated by the death of the then Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa. With the AIADMK split, with a small breakaway faction led by former chief minister O Panneerselvam (a Jaya loyalist to the core), the Sasikala faction that claims to be the real AIADMK with most of the MLAs in its fold, the fight promises to be the big one.

Now, entering the fray is Jayalalithaa’s niece Deepa Jayakumar, who had in the past made appearances along with OPS at the Jayalalithaa memorial at Marina Beach. But will the OPS faction extend support to Deepa or field its own candidate remains to be seen. The speculation in the ruling AIADMK is that the current deputy general secretary TTV Dinakaran could be fielded from the constituency that was represented by Amma in the assembly.

It is for this reason alone that Deepa had announced her candidature long before the poll was announced by the election commission. With these two introducing an element of suspense, the opposition DMK is sensing its chance to embarrass the ruling party by snatching RK Nagar and it fancies its chances as Amma is no longer there.

The split in votes of AIADMK for sure will help the DMK, said a political analyst, and it this happens it will be a huge psychological victory for MK Stalin. The Sasikala faction of AIADMK, which has 122 MLAs in its fold, is firmly entrenched in the government and there is no threat to it. But it faces threat from a different direction.

Already AIADMK general secretary VK Sasikala is facing an enquiry into her own election as the general secretary in the light of complaints lodged by OPS faction that rules were not followed in her election as party chief and that it should be nullified. If this happens, then the OPS faction gets control of the party and would be entitled to the two leaves symbol of the AIADMK.

A favorable EC decision for OPS would also mean that all decisions taken by Sasikala as the general secretary could get nullified too. Or else, the party will come under the control of AIADMK presidium chairman E Madhusudanan and treasurer OPS.

But this of course is not something that OPS faction is banking on.

It is hoping to defeat Sasikala faction on the ground in Amma’s constituency to tell the people that OPS faction is the real party. A victory here would embolden it and it will attract more cadres and second rung leaders. Already at many places, leaders down the pecking order have joined the OPS faction. Deepa too is drawing crowds as also party cadres, but it remains to be seen as to how many people actually stick with her if she went alone..

But all these developments sure present the DMK with a realistic chance of winning RK Nagar constituency, which it won several years ago. Incidentally RK Nagar is going to polls for the third time in the last two years. Jayalalithaa contested from here after she was let off in the corruption case by the Karnataka High Court in 2015.

In the general elections that ensued in 2016, Jayalalithaa won with ease from this seat. But after her death in December last year, the seat fell vacant and it became necessary to conduct bye elections to fill the vacancy.

Incidentally, the former MLA P Vetrivel, who resigned to make way for Jayalalithaa to contest, is at present on Sasikala’s side. And AIADMK presidium chairman E Madhusudanan, who had earlier represented the RK Nagar constituency, sided with OPS and has been expelled by Sasikala.

The first time she contested from R K Nagar in 2015, she won with a massive margin of more than 1,50,000 votes.

In 2016 when she contested for the last time from R K Nagar constituency, the swing was in the negative. Jayalalithaa surely won the seat but the margin stood at a mere 39,545 votes.

This makes the contest this time very interesting as the victory margin Jayalalithaa could manage fell drastically and with a split in AIADMK vote, it remains to be seen if the DMK can manage to wrest this seat, which has been an AIADMK bastion since 2001.